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Exeter City vs Carlisle United Preview | BlueArmyBlog | A Carlisle United Blog



It's another relegation six-pointer with The Blues taking on Exeter City on Saturday. The Grecians are one place above Carlisle in 21st on 23 points, 3 ahead of Carlisle. It's a game we should be going into looking to win.


Exeter like us has had four games in the last 15 days, and the form table (last 6 matches), looks very similar to the league positions with Exeter in 20th and us in 21st. They also have the same points as us in the last 6 games.


Exeter's last 6 games:


Reading (a) lost 3-2

Pompey (h) draw 0-0

Wycombe (h) win 1-0

Cambridge (a) lost 0-2

Stevenage (a) draw 1-1

Port Vale (h) lost 0-1


Total points 5

Goals scored 4

Goals conceded 7

xG created 7.51

xG conceded 9.75


The story of Exeter's season is generally summarised by their attacking and defending stats created in the last 6 games. Exeter are not very good defensively, even though on the face of it they have conceded the same number of goals as us (36), they concede better chances to the opposition compared to us, and we have been unlucky with the goals we have conceded. They have conceded 36.0 xG, with only Fleetwood conceding more in the league. We fair much better in xG conceded at 30.1 which is bang in mid-table in 12th. Exeter have the worst xG conceded from set plays, at 10.95 while only conceding 7 goals. Jack Robinson has to play with his excellent delivery from corners of late. Like ours, Exeter's confidence is fragile with only one win in the last 16 league games. Bearing this in mind we must take the attack to them and try to get the first goal to take advantage of their poor defensive record.


Exeter's attacking stats of the last 6 games also tell a story of their season. They scored only 4 goals from 7.51 xG created. They create good chances but do not have the attacking players to finish them. They have only scored two goals in a game on one occasion since August. This season they have created 26.8 expected goals which is the 17th best in the league, from this they have only scored 16 goals (6 of them at home in 12 games), which is the lowest in the league. They gave missed 35 big chances which is the 4th highest in the league. Our stats as a comparison are 20 goals from 22.7 xG created, with 20 big chances missed. Let's hope that the player they are trying to bring in before the weekend is not a prolific striker.


According to Sofascore, Who Scored and FotMob their highest-rated player is Will Aimson, who missed their last game against Reading with a late fitness test, which resulted in 41-year-old coach, David Perkins being named on the bench. Aimson generally plays as RCB in a back 3, however, in the last game due to Aimson being unavailable it looks like they played a back 4.


Their top scorer is central midfielder Ryan Trevitt with 3 goals. He scored one of his goals in the reverse fixture against us with a low blast from outside the box following a clearance from a corner. It looks like he is injured and won't start at the weekend. Another player of theirs who had made a big contribution this season was Demetri Mitchell, who clocked up 2 goals and 5 assists by the end of October, however, it looks like he could be out for the season with an injury.


As for us, we have the excitement of Luke Armstrong being available for his first appearance for the blues. He's our record signing so has to start at the weekend. Subject to an injury we are not aware of, he is the only change from the team who started against Port Vale. I thought Joe Garner was excellent against Port Vale so unfortunately it's Sean Maguire who would miss out, he's missed the most big chances (6) and has only scored 1 goal from Exeter's manager, Gary Caldwell commented that his side struggled to deal with the long balls played into Readings forwards in their last game. A front 2 of Armstrong and Garner is about as physical as it gets, we will just need Gibbo to penetrate and run through to keep Exeter's defence as deep as possible.


A win would take us to 23 points, which would mean we would go above Exeter on goal difference. It's all about the first goal, if we can get that, I am confident we can get a win. If we concede first, it will be a tough ask.


My prediction is a 0-2 win for the blues with goals from Armstrong and Lavelle.


Up The Blues!





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